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Research and methodology

How Red Star Foundation Estimates More Than 300,000 Deaths

The math, the source research and the limits behind the 300,000 figure on our homepage.

Introduction

By Red Star Foundation. Published . Last reviewed .

America’s Warrior Partnership’s Operation Deep Dive research has raised important questions about the full scope of premature deaths among former members of the U.S. military.

The research estimates that at least 44 former service members die every day from suicide and self-injury mortality combined.

Using this broader estimate, Red Star Foundation calculates that an equivalent daily mortality rate sustained over 20 years would represent more than 300,000 deaths.

This calculation illustrates the potential scale of the crisis. It is not an independently verified count of deaths over the entire 20-year period.

The calculation

321,200

44 deaths per day × 365 days × 20 years = 321,200 estimated deaths.

More than 300,000 deaths over 20 years

Daily estimate (AWP)
At least 44
Per year (44 × 365)
16,060
Over 20 years (Red Star)
321,200

Methodology note: This figure represents a hypothetical 20-year extrapolation of America’s Warrior Partnership’s broader daily suicide and self-injury mortality estimate. It does not establish that this number of deaths was historically recorded during the period. Source: America’s Warrior Partnership, Operation Deep Dive (opens in a new tab). The 20-year multiplication is Red Star Foundation’s.

Understanding America’s Warrior Partnership’s Operation Deep Dive

  • Operation Deep Dive examined deaths among former service members, people who served in the active, National Guard or Reserve forces with active-duty service.
  • The original research analyzed five years of death records, 2014 through 2018, from eight states: Alabama, Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana and Oregon. Department of Defense records were used to confirm military service.
  • The study identified deaths classified as suicide and additional deaths classified as self-injury mortality: accidents or undetermined deaths aligned with self-harm or suicidal behavior, which the study attributed predominantly to overdoses.
  • Its reported estimate was at least 44 former service member deaths daily from these combined categories: about 24 by suicide and about 20 by self-injury mortality.
  • The broader classification helps examine mortality that conventional suicide statistics might not capture.

Three different kinds of numbers

Readers should keep the study’s observed data, its national extrapolation and Red Star Foundation’s separate calculation apart.

  1. 1. Observed

    What the study found

    In the eight states, which hold about 18% of U.S. veterans, the study counted 1.37 times as many former service member suicides as the VA reported for 2014 to 2018, plus additional self-injury mortality deaths.

  2. 2. Extrapolated by AWP

    The 44-per-day estimate

    If those eight states and the study’s age adjustment represented the national rate, about 24 suicide and 20 self-injury mortality deaths would occur each day: at least 44 combined.

  3. 3. Calculated by Red Star

    The 20-year figure

    Red Star Foundation multiplied the 44-per-day estimate across 20 years to reach 321,200. America’s Warrior Partnership did not publish, review or verify this calculation.

Read America’s Warrior Partnership’s Operation Deep Dive Research (opens in a new tab)

Why Do VA and AWP Report Different Numbers?

The Department of Veterans Affairs reports deaths officially classified as suicide. America’s Warrior Partnership used a broader mortality definition that also includes self-injury mortality. Not every self-injury mortality death was a confirmed suicide; many were recorded as accidental or undetermined, most often overdoses.

VA official count compared with AWP’s Operation Deep Dive estimate
What it measuresVA: Deaths officially classified as suicide among U.S. veterans.AWP: Deaths classified as suicide plus self-injury mortality among former service members. Self-injury mortality covers accidental or undetermined deaths aligned with self-harm, predominantly overdoses.
PopulationVA: U.S. veterans as defined in VA reporting.AWP: Former service members ages 18 to 64 with active-duty service, limited to those who served from 1971 onward because of Department of Defense record limits.
Geographic coverageVA: All 50 states and the District of Columbia.AWP: Eight states (Alabama, Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana and Oregon), home to about 18% of U.S. veterans. The 44-per-day figure is a national extrapolation from those states.
Research yearsVA: Deaths in 2024, in the report published Sept. 30, 2026, with trend data back to 2001.AWP: Five years of death records, 2014 through 2018.
Data and classificationVA: National death records matched with VA and Department of Defense records. Manner of death as recorded on the death certificate.AWP: State death records matched with Department of Defense service records. Suicides as determined by a coroner or medical examiner, plus deaths researchers grouped as self-injury mortality.
Headline figureVA: 6,488 veteran suicide deaths in 2024, an average of 17.7 per day.AWP: At least 44 former service member deaths per day from suicide and self-injury mortality combined, if the eight states represented the national rate.
Why they are not equivalentVA: An official, nationwide count of one category of death in one year.AWP: A research estimate of a broader category, from a different population, period and method. It is not a higher count of the same deaths and should not be added to or swapped for the VA figure.

Read the VA 2026 National Veteran Suicide Prevention Annual Report (opens in a new tab) and Operation Deep Dive Summary of Interim Report (opens in a new tab). Our veteran suicide statistics page lists every dated figure with its source.

Behind Every Death Is a Family

Each death of a veteran or former service member reaches far beyond one person. Spouses lose partners. Parents lose sons and daughters. Children grow up without a mother or father. Siblings, friends, fellow service members and whole communities carry the grief, the questions and, too often, the silence that follows.

Illustration

300,000 deaths × 6 directly affected loved ones = 1.8 million people

This is an illustration based on an assumed six directly affected people per death. It is not a documented count of unique bereaved individuals, and some people grieve more than one loss. It is the basis for “nearly 2 million loved ones” on our homepage.

Six is a modeling assumption. The figure has been cited for decades without empirical support, according to Cerel and colleagues in Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior (2019) (opens in a new tab). Their survey found that about 135 people knew each person who died by suicide. Not everyone who knew the person is a directly affected loved one, so six is used here as a narrower assumption for close family and friends.

Red Star Foundation calls these survivors Red Star Families, and our mission is to provide Hope, Recognition, Connection to them. Learn more about Red Star Families and the Red Star Service Banner, which families can display to honor a loved one lost to suicide.

Frequently asked questions

Where does the 300,000 estimate come from?

It is Red Star Foundation’s own calculation. We take America’s Warrior Partnership’s estimate of at least 44 former service member deaths per day from suicide and self-injury mortality and multiply it across 20 years: 44 × 365 × 20 = 321,200. America’s Warrior Partnership did not publish or verify this 20-year figure.

What does AWP's 44-per-day figure include?

It combines about 24 suicide deaths per day and about 20 self-injury mortality deaths per day among former service members. Self-injury mortality includes accidental or undetermined deaths aligned with self-harm, and the study reported that more than 80% of them were coded as overdoses. The figure assumes the eight states studied represent the national rate.

Is 300,000 a confirmed historical suicide count?

No. It is a hypothetical 20-year extrapolation of a daily research estimate, not a count of deaths recorded since 2001. It also includes self-injury mortality, so not every death in the estimate was a confirmed suicide.

Why are AWP's and VA's figures different?

They measure different things. The VA counts deaths officially classified as suicide among veterans nationwide. America’s Warrior Partnership studied former service members ages 18 to 64 in eight states from 2014 to 2018 and added self-injury mortality. See the comparison table above.

How many loved ones may be affected?

As an illustration, 300,000 deaths × 6 directly affected loved ones each = 1,800,000 people, which is the basis for “nearly 2 million” on our homepage. Six is a modeling assumption, not a documented count of unique bereaved people. Research by Cerel and colleagues (2019) (opens in a new tab) found that about 135 people know each person who dies by suicide.

What is Red Star Foundation doing to help?

We provide Hope, Recognition, Connection to Red Star Families. Families can request a Red Star Service Banner and pin, connect through the Peer-to-Peer Network and find support in our national suicide prevention resource directory. We also support H.R. 7815, the Red Star Service Banner Act, which has been introduced in Congress and has not become law.

Sources

Links open in a new tab. Figures were checked against these sources on Nov. 9, 2026.

How to cite this page: Red Star Foundation, “How Red Star Foundation Estimates More Than 300,000 Deaths,” published Nov. 9, 2026, https://redstarfoundation.org/research/veteran-suicide-300000-deaths/

Keep reading

Need help? Veterans and their loved ones can call 988 and press 1, or text 838255, to reach the Veterans Crisis Line (opens in a new tab). In an emergency, call 911.